The slow pace at which onshore wind energy infrastructure is being built in the Republic and Northern Ireland could result in the renewable energy targets set for 2030 being missed.
Energy market consultancy Cornwall Insight estimates that at the current level of delivery the target could be missed by as much as three years.
Its latest Single Energy Market (SEM) Benchmark Power Curve finds that by the end of the decade, just 66% of power could be coming from renewables, short of the 80% target set for the all-island SEM.
Its models suggest that it will be 2033 before the 80% target set south of the border will be reached and 2034 before the same target in the north is hit.
“Delays to planning and grid connection concerns have been named as the chief cause with the growth of renewables, most notably onshore wind, moving slower than expected,” Cornwall Insight says.
Specifically the firm warns the volume of contracts awarded to onshore during the most recent Irish Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS 4) auction was well below what was needed.
The current Climate Action Plan in the Republic of Ireland set a target of 9GW of onshore wind by 2030, but the analysis suggests that when the four projects which received contracts under RESS 4 are added to existing and contracted capacity, it will bring the output to just over 5GW.
In the north, 2.5GW of onshore wind is being planned, but is currently only operating at around 1.3GW.
But Cornwall Insight says that despite the issues the SEM does still currently have the highest contribution of wind generation of any power system in the world and significant progress is forecast to be made.
It estimates that by 2031, 74% of the power on the grid north and south will be coming from renewables, up from 40% last year.
“While progress is being made, the renewables targets remain very ambitious,” says Kitty Nolan, modeller at Cornwall Insight.
“The RESS 4 auction procured lower than expected capacity, with onshore wind trailing a long way behind where it needs to be.”
“Both Ireland and Northern Ireland are facing significant challenges in terms of grid connections and planning processes and without concerted efforts to accelerate progress in these areas, hitting these 2030 targets could slip further out of reach.”
“It’s vital that policymakers maintain momentum for renewables, and recent changes in Ireland’s grid connection policies show promising signs for renewed growth. With the right drive and support, reaching these ambitious goals is could be within sight.”
The assessment comes as Wind Energy Ireland called for the next Government to prioritise implementing the new Planning and Development Act in order to fix a “broken” planning system for renewable energy.
Publishing its election manifesto, the organisation said reinforcement of the grid also has to be a national priority.
It is also seeking a start to planning for the next decade after 2030 through the development of a strategy for electrification, supporting floating wind energy, enabling long-duration energy storage and announcing a firm target for a net-zero electricity system.
“At a national level, the Dáil must ensure that the foundations are in place not only to help us meet our climate targets, but to help develop a cleaner and more secure future for our families and our communities across Ireland,” Wind Energy Ireland CEO, Noel Cunniffe said.
“That means ensuring the planning system, at every level, has the resources and expertise needed to process the increasing volume of renewable energy applications entering the system,” he urged.
“Our first new offshore wind energy projects in a generation have entered the planning system this year. They need to be supported at every step and be given the opportunity to engage with the relevant State agencies to give them the best possible chance of getting planning permission,” he said.
“It is also important that our elected representatives actively ensure that planning policy at national and local levels are aligned to deliver the amount of onshore renewable energy needed by Irish consumers to cut their bills and our carbon emissions,” he added.
Article Source – Onshore wind energy delays may result in 2030 target miss – RTE